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Update: 2024 Vermont Election Analysis

7 November 2024

Governor Phil Scott cruised to his fifth term in office with more than 70% of the vote. In the race for Lt. Governor, Republican John Rodgers defeated the incumbent, Progressive/Democrat David Zuckerman.

The election returns the Democrats to power in Montpelier in both the House and the Senate, but without the supermajority they have had for the past two years.

The Democrats lost six seats in the Senate: 

  • Steven Heffernan in Addison County defeated incumbent Senator Chris Bray 
  • Larry Hart in Orange County defeated incumbent Senator Mark MacDonald 
  • Pat Brennan in Grande Isle County defeated incumbent Senator Andy Julow
  • Chris Mattos in Chittenden County defeated incumbent Senator Irene Wrenner
  • Scott Beck in Caledonia County won the seat formerly held by Senator Jane Kitchell
  • Sam Douglas in Orleans County defeated former Rep. Katherine Sims

The split in the Senate is now 17 Democrats/13 Republicans, which is enough votes to sustain a veto from Governor Scott.

There were also some notable races in the House where the incumbents lost to Republican challengers, including:

  • St. Albans, where Joe Luneau defeated Rep. Mike McCarthy, the influential Chair of the Government Operations Committee
  • Rutland, where Chris Keyser defeated Rep. Bill Notte, who was the Assistant Majority Leader in charge of Development & Strategy
  • Vergennes, where Rob North defeated Rep. Diane Lanpher, the powerful Chair of the Appropriations Committee
  • Corinth, where Michael Tagliavia defeated Rep Carl Demrow, the ranking member on the House Ways and Means Committee
  • Brandon, where Todd Nielsen defeated Rep. Stephanie Jerome, the Vice-Chair of the House Commerce Committee
  • Middletown Springs/Pawlet, where Chris Pritchard defeated Rep. Chesnut-Tangerman
  • Barre, where Michael Boutin defeated Rep. Jonathan Williams
  • Chester, where Thomas Charlton defeated Rep. Heather Chase
  • Dorset, where Sandy Pinsonault defeated Rep Mike Rice
  • Barnet, where Debra Lynn Powers defeated Rep. Bobby Farlice-Rubio

This shake-up will impact several key leadership positions in the House and Senate. Already, there is a contested race to be the next Speaker of the House, and this is likely to intensify over the next few weeks.

-Matt Cota, Meadow Hill (VT Lobbyist for NEHPBA)


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